TERMS OF REFERENCE

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT IN SOMALIA

 

• Background

Somalia is recovering from a long period of civil unrest and the absence of functioning institutions despite facing insecurity and chronic humanitarian situations in many parts of the country. More recently, as part of its efforts on debt relief, Somalia has been considered to have reached the Decision Point under the enhanced Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF). As part of its poverty reduction strategies, Somalia has launched a new 5-years National Development Plan (NDP-9, 2020-2024). However, on the other side, the country has the lowest GDP per capita in Africa and 7 in 10 Somali people live below the international poverty line, making Somalia the third poorest country in the region. A further 1 in 10 people is vulnerable to falling below the poverty line during a shock.  Also, chronic food insecurity and the resulting severe malnutrition among children under five years of age are a particular concern in Somalia.

 

Currently, about 5.2 million people need humanitarian assistance of which 1.7 million are Internally Displaced People (IDP). The total number of IDPs in the county is estimated at 2.6 million people. The main drivers of displacement include drought, conflict, floods, and seasonal rural-urban migration in search of employment opportunities in the main towns and cities across the country.

 

Due to the fragile livelihoods system of the majority of the population, Somali households are exposed to seasonal shocks and stresses causing widespread displacement and multi-faceted humanitarian situations. In addition to the community level shocks, vulnerable households face household-level shocks such as unemployment, death, or illness. Global evidence has shown that women and children are particularly susceptible to disaster risks due to their limited coping capacity. It’s feared that the current COVID-19 epidemic crisis has further exacerbated the coping capacity of the vulnerable households due to its disruptions on income sources, increased food prices thus reducing their purchasing powers. The implication of the social vulnerabilities on the lives of children and their families is higher with evidence consistently suggesting that children in disadvantaged groups have higher rates of poverty and lower access to basic services, such as healthcare and education.

 

• Rationale

The most likely scenario of Covid-19 impact in Somalia includes the expected decline of remittances flow, imported food supply chain disruptions causing food price to increase and decline in employment and income in the informal sector. The situation could significantly become worse if COVID-19 spreads in the community and the number of cases testing positive overwhelms the existing health care capacities of the country leading to further trade and movement restrictions. In these situations, the poor and vulnerable households will be severely affected and will require urgent assistance.

 

The Covid-19 crisis has already transformed into an economic and labor market shock, impacting not only supply (production of goods and services) but also demand (consumption and investment). All businesses, regardless of size, are facing serious challenges, especially those in the aviation, tourism, and hospitality industries, with a real threat of significant declines in revenue, insolvencies, and job losses in specific sectors. Sustaining business operations will be particularly difficult for Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs). Following travel bans, border closures, and quarantine measures, many workers cannot move to their places of work or carry out their jobs, which has knock-on effects on incomes, particularly for informal and casually employed workers. Consumers in the Somali economy are unable or reluctant to purchase goods and services. Given the current environment of uncertainty and fear, enterprises are likely to delay investments, purchases of goods, and the hiring of workers.

 

Therefore, it’s with this background that the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs (MoLSA) intends to commission a Vulnerability Assessment to assess the social and economic impacts(both primary and secondary) of COVID-19, and to identify which households are most at risk of falling below the poverty line due to the primary and secondary impacts of COVID-19. It’s expected that this assessment will be able to measure the number of people in need due to the consequences of COVID-19 by disaggregating into different livelihood groups, age groups, and sex and project the number of people in need of social assistance for the period of May-December 2020.

 

• Consultancy Objectives

3.1 General Objective

The overall aim of this assessment is to examine the primary and secondary socioeconomic impacts of COVID-19 on the various livelihood groups and identify which households are most at risk of falling below the poverty line due to the consequences of COVID-19. This assessment is also expected to quantify the number of people who require assistance now and provide a projection on the estimated number of people who will need social assistance until the end of December 2020.

• Specific Objectives of the Consultancy Service

The specific objectives of the assessment include;

• Assess the impacts (both primary and secondary) of COVID-19 on people’s livelihoods, labor, and income opportunities particularly vulnerable populations including rural and urban poor households.
• Assess the socioeconomic impacts of COVID-19 on certain segments of the population, which can trigger worsening food insecurity and social inequality for the period of May-December 2020.
• Identify households that are at greater risks than others focusing on vulnerable groups in urban areas including IDPs and people living in slums.
• Mapping the vulnerability of critical infrastructures and sectors (Schools, banks, food security, livelihoods, WASH) focused on the effects of COVID-19
• To increase the understanding of the specific contexts within which the government can implement a social safety net program.
• Household capacities to absorb shocks – How are the most vulnerable adapting the effect of the Covid-19 and demonstrate how social safety net or any other social protection can reduce the negative coping mechanisms.

 

• Scope of the work

The vulnerability assessment will be conducted Nationwide. The overarching aim of the assessment is to investigate the primary and secondary socioeconomic impacts of COVID-19 on people’s lives and livelihoods, access to basic services, and how they are coping with the rising food prices, and declining income opportunities and decrease of remittances flow into the country.

 

The assessment will further look into the impact of preventative measures of COVID-19 including internal travel restrictions, market closures, and movement restrictions on vulnerable groups.  The assessment will be conducted in 12 urban locations across the Country.

 

Specifically, the assessment should respond to the following questions:

1. What are the primary and secondary socioeconomic impacts of COVID-19 on people’s lives and livelihoods? Especially among the vulnerable populations?
2. Who are the groups that are more exposed to the socioeconomic consequences of COVID-19?
3. Quantify the number of people who are expected to require Social Protection.
4. Which segment of the Somali population should be prioritized to receive social assistance?
5. What is the extent of the vulnerability? What are the sources of the vulnerability?
6. How do vulnerable households respond to COVID-19 pandemic or shock? What gaps exist between risks and risk management mechanisms?

 

• Methodology

 

MoLSA will engage a consultancy firm with experience in doing similar assignments to conduct a vulnerability assessment on vulnerable groups in the country using relevant qualitative and quantitative methods. The assessment will make full use of available secondary data by pulling together all relevant existing reports, recent assessments, and academic articles from various sources.

The assessment will be conducted through the following methodologies:

1. Sources: The assessment will employ mixed methods; secondary data reviews and primary data collection
2. Data Collection Techniques: Multiple data collection techniques will be utilized including household interviews, key informant interviews, focus group discussions, and direct observations where possible.
3. Data Collection Tools: Using structured questionnaires, households’ interviews, and KIIs, the survey will be administered through phone calls and online surveys respectively. In order to save time and make the data analysis easier, digital data collection will be used.
4. Key indicators and survey tool: The sampling and the data collection tools including key indicators will be jointly designed during the inception phase of the assessment.
5. Stakeholder Engagement: Relevant stakeholders including Government, Non-Governmental Organizations, local government and state authorities, the business community (employers), religious leaders and clan elders, and other frontline staff will be consulted and interviewed to get a comprehensive picture of the impact of the pandemic on different vulnerable groups in Somalia to identify gaps and proffer feasible recommendations.

 

• Deliverables:

The following outputs are expected of the consultant

• Inception report detailing the methodology, data collection tools, and work plan upon signing the contract.
• A draft report of no more than 30 pages summarizing key findings and recommendations. The report is expected to have community and household level case studies.
• A debrief to the MoLSA team upon production of the initial draft report
• A stakeholder briefing workshop to solicit feedback and inputs into the report.
• A final report
• Presentation of the final report to the wider stakeholders

 

• Duration of the assignment

The assignment will take a maximum of 60 working days including briefing and submitting the final report. Due to the urgent need to do this, it’s expected that the actual fieldwork will commence in early June 2020 to early September 2020 for a total of 90 days.

 

• Management and Reporting
• The consultancy will be supervised by the Head of the Social Protection Department of the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs (MoLSA) and will work closely with the Federal Member States Focal Points during the fieldwork.
• The firm must have foot prints in all Member States to collect quality primary data.
• MoLSA will not provide logistical support. The Consultant will be required to meet the costs as per the contractual agreement

 

• Qualifications and Experience of the Consultant

MoLSA is seeking to contract a consultancy firm either international or local that has the relevant experience and has conducted similar assignments within the country. The lead consultants shall have a master’s degree in Social Sciences or related field and at least 10 years of experience in research and evaluations of humanitarian action. Experience in working in Somalia is essential for this work. Knowledge and experience in data collection, data analysis, and report writing are also essential for this assignment.

 

• Application Process

Interested and qualified consultancy firms should submit their technical proposal giving a clear interpretation of the ToR and outlining proposed methodology, work plan, and financial proposal along with their CVs to  socialp@molsa.gov.so . deadline for applications is 6^th June 2020.